Health Score
Executive Summary
Dark Noise has a quiet churn problem. Weekly churned MRR ($80/wk) is outpacing new MRR ($65/wk), creating a slow but compounding decline. The business is acquiring subscribers — it's not retaining them long enough.
🟡 Stable — Action Required
MRR
$4,545
▼ 1.2% over 9 months
ARR
$54.5K
Annualized MRR
Active Subscribers
2,531
▼ 1.5% since Jul '25
Avg Churn Rate
1.68%
↕ 0.59–2.17% range
Trial Conversion
58%
↕ 51–69% (volatile)
New vs Churned MRR
$65/$80
Net negative weekly
MRR — 9 Month Trend
▼ 1.2%
New MRR vs Churned MRR
Key insight
Active Subscribers
▼ 38 since peak
Trial Conversion Rate
High volatility
MRR Movement — Last 4 Weeks
Inflows vs Outflows
| Week | New MRR | Churned MRR | Net | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | +$58 | -$112 | -$54 | ⚠️ Churn spike |
| Mar 8 | +$67 | -$49 | +$18 | ✓ Recovery week |
| Mar 15 | +$56 | -$84 | -$28 | ⚠️ Net negative |
| Mar 22 | +$77 | -$74 | +$3 | ≈ Breakeven |
3 of 4 recent weeks were net negative. The single positive week came from unusually low churn — not improved acquisition.
🚩 Red Flags Detected
High
Churned MRR ($80/wk) exceeds New MRR ($65/wk)
You are losing subscribers faster than you acquire them. At this rate, MRR will continue its current -1.2%/9mo trajectory. Without intervention, expect ~$220/month in compounding MRR loss annually.
Medium
Revenue trending up while MRR trends down — "Sugar Rush" pattern
One-time purchases or short-duration plans are inflating revenue while recurring subscriptions decay. This divergence is unsustainable and typically precedes a sharper MRR correction within 2-3 quarters.
Medium
Trial conversion rate is volatile (51%–69% in 4 weeks, 18-point range)
Inconsistent conversion suggests a non-structural factor — possible paywall A/B test, seasonal skew, or cohort quality variation from a specific acquisition channel. Identify and stabilize before scaling acquisition spend.
📋 Recommendations
1
Investigate churn cohorts via subscription_retention chart. Which subscription duration churns fastest? Annual subscribers who churn at renewal are a different problem than monthly churners who quit in month 2. RevenueCat's retention chart will show you where the drop-off occurs. Fix the worst cohort first.
2
Run a win-back campaign targeting recent churned subscribers. They're your warmest re-convert candidates — they know the product. A targeted 20% off paywall (deployable via RevenueCat Paywalls in hours) typically recovers 8–15% of recent churners within 30 days.
3
Audit trial-to-paid experience. At 58% average conversion with high volatility, there's structural instability. Common wins: shorten trial (adds urgency), improve Day 1 onboarding, add an in-trial engagement push on Day 5. The goal is making conversion feel inevitable, not forced.